10 Horses to Follow
He arrived at Ditcheat from France where he made 8 starts winning 3 times over hurdles as well as winning his only start over fences. We didn't see him make his debut for Paul till late on in the season, he did this in late February at Catterick, he was sent off a short priced favourite and justified this winning easily in the end by nearly 4 lengths. Two weeks later he was running at Cheltenham in the Marsh Novices Chase, he was sent off a 33/1 outsider and eventually finished 7th. He jumped well throughout the race and was in midfield with 3 to jump but didn't have the pace to challenge. I thought this was a great run considering it was only his 2nd chase start for Nicholls and was chucked right in the deep end against the likes of Faugheen, Samcro and Melon. I fully expect him to have come on leaps and bounds from last season and expect him to be a lively player in the Bet Victor Gold Cup or The Caspian Caviar Gold Cup at Cheltenham then its just a matter of seeing where Paul wants to place him after that.
Third Time Lucki (Dan Skelton)
He joined Dan Skelton after finishing 2nd in a 3m PTP, on his debut for new connections he finished 3rd at Ascot 2 1/4 lengths in front of unbeaten hurdler Highway One O Two. He then went on to record back to back wins at Market Rasen and Huntington, he done these easily, travelling smoothly throughout the race before pulling clear. Dan then decided to give him a few months rest before putting him in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham, he finished 4th but he wasn't disgraced one bit, finishing the best of the English challengers behind the Mullins pair of Ferny Hollow and Appreciate It. He travelled well throughout the race like he always does before chasing the leaders home. I fell he will be a nice addition to the novice hurdle ranks this season and hopefully if he progresses nicely the Skeltons could have a horse to go to war with in the Supreme come March.
He Started his hurdle campaign at Ascot in November, but he pulled hard and never made it past the first hurdle, he then wasn't seen till January where he won impressively at Ludlow. He then made light work of another field winning in a canter by 14 lengths at Doncaster, Nicky then decided to put him in the Supreme where he finished 5th a couple of lengths behind Asterion Forlonge and stable mate Chantry House. He travelled strongly during the race and was in 3rd position with 2 to jump, just he and the two in front didn't have the pace to go with the front two. I’m not sure if he’s got enough ability to be a graded performer in the 2 mile hurdle division but I feel he will have something to offer in the high class handicaps if that's the route Nicky decides to take with him. Either way he’s an exciting horse for this season and is another decent horse that Henderson has at his disposal.
Chantry House (Nicky Henderson)
He started over hurdles with a nice win at Cheltenham beating Stolen Silver comfortably in the end, he then won again, this time even easier at Newbury winning by 4 1/2 lengths. Nicky then pitched him into the Supreme with stablemates Shishkin and Allart, he was always in touch during the race, but never looked like challenging the first two who pulled well clear of him. After Cheltenham Henderson confirmed that he would of rather ran Chantry House over 2 and a half miles but he wanted to avoid Envoi Allen. I'm assuming next season he will be going chasing and I'd like to think he'd be one to make his presence felt in most races, it will be interesting to see what distance they go with him though having won over 2 miles over hurdles and 3 miles in a PTP. I'm sure we will see him in one of the Novice chases at Cheltenham with the target possibly being the Marsh.
With only the 4 runs over hurdles to his name its clear to see that we haven't seen the best of him yet, he started over hurdles at Chepstow where he was a beaten short priced favourite. He then put in a disappointing performance in the Supreme Trial at Ascot where he finished last of four with the yard having no explanation for this. He then went on to win at Market Rasen before putting in his most impressive performance at Kempton in the Novices Handicap Hurdle, winning by 6 1/2 lengths. Nicholls has said that he hopes in time he will be a Stayers Hurdle horse, so that could possibly be the end target this season. Interestingly seen as he didn't win his first race over hurdles till February he still remains a novice till the end of November, Paul is looking to take full advantage of this with him entered in the Persian War Novice hurdle where he is a short priced favourite.
He was probably last seasons stand out juvenile hurdler behind Goshen winning 3 of his 4 starts over hurdles. His first run at Warwick he won as he liked, winning by a total of 37 lengths, he was then upped in class when entered into the Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham where he won impressively again making all and staying on well, it was reported he also lost a shoe in the process. After this he went into the Grade 1 Coral Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow, once again he made all drawing well clear in the run in to beat Cerberus by 9 lengths. He then went back to Cheltenham for the Triumph Hurdle where he suffered his first defeat finishing 3rd but best of the English runners, he ran his usual race from the front but had nothing left in the run in. He could be a nice outsider for the Champion Hurdle this year, with the old course possibly suiting him more than the new one which the Triumph is ran on, you could also see him going for races such as the Kingwell or the Elite Hurdle where he would be a danger to any from the front on a flat track.
He has been lightly raced by Paul over hurdles in the year and a half that he's had him, after his 10th in the Triumph in 2019 he was then seen in France where he fell when travelling well, he was then given a 2 month break before finishing last in a Handicap Hurdle at Ascot where he travelled well before weakening near the end. Paul then decided to drop him back in trip and enter him in the valuable Betfair Hurdle, he justified Paul's decision by going on to win at 33/1, staying on really well after the last to beat Ciel De Neige by 3/4s of a length. The plan for this season is to go novice chasing with the end target being the Arkle come March, he will hopefully be one of Paul's strong 2m novice chasers along with Solo and second season novice Getaway Trump.
He won 3 of his 4 starts, starting in the Persian War Novice Hurdle at Chepstow here we stayed on well to beat Fiddlerontheroof, he then went to the Grade 2 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham where he beat Champagne Well by 3 lengths. His least impressive win came next time out in the Challow Hurdle at Newbury, he wasn't fluent jumping the last but ultimately out stayed The Cashel Man on the run in to get his Grade 1 victory. His final run on the season came in the Albert Bartlett where he finished 4th behind the Irish trio of Monkfish, Latest Exhibition and Fury Road, he was unlucky in the run in as he got squashed for space with Johnson having to switch him before making his run again. Its good to see him staying over hurdles again this year where he should be a big player in the Stayers Hurdle.
Captain Guinness (Henry De Bromhead)
He made and impressive debut over hurdles when winning his Maiden Hurdle by 7 lengths at odds of 20/1, he was then chucked into a Grade 2 where he came up against the highly rated Andy Dufresne and its safe to say he didn't look out of place, only being beat by 3/4s of a length and looking like he was gonna win. His final run of the year was in the Supreme Novices Hurdle, he was travelling really well before being hampered 3 out and then being brought down at the next flight, I doubt he would of won but I could definitely of seen him finishing in the top 4/5. He will be going novice chasing this season with the Arkle the main aim, I feel he could be a forgotten horse behind the market leader Shishkin.
He was unbeaten in his first 3 starts over hurdles, winning his first 2 with ease by 18 and 10 lengths, he was then upped in class to a Grade 2 which he won beating Well Set Up by 1 length. Then he was 4th behind Latest Exhibition at Punchestown in a Grade 1 where he never really looked like troubling the winner. He was then upped in trip to 3m for the Albert Bartlett where he met Latest Exhibition again, finishing closer to him this time round but ultimately finishing 3rd in a photo between the first 3, he stayed on all the way up the hill leading over the last just didn't have the pace of the front 2. Interestingly Gordon has confirmed that he will stay over hurdles and will be aimed at the Stayers Hurdle, so I'm looking forward to seeing if he and Thyme Hill who I mentioned before can put it up to the likes of Paisley Park and last years winner Lisnegar Oscar.
Now in this section we will get some horses to follow from a few people I know off twitter. These are Graham Howe or National Hunt Opinions @NhOpinions Sam Yates @Sdyates85 and Josh Toole @joshtoole91 all of them are avid National hunt fans so I thought it would add something different getting some other people’s opinions. Their selections are provided below.
Commander Of Fleet (Gordon Elliot) Graham
A winner of the 2018 Punchestown Bumper, this son of Flame And Glory won twice over Hurdles. His biggest win came in the Grade 1 Novice Hurdle in Leopardstown (2m6f) during the Dublin Racing Festival, but his best run was as runner up in the 2019 Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle behind Minella Indo and 7 lengths in front of Allaho. Connections always talked about Commander Of Fleet as a Chaser, so to split these 2 who battled out this years RSA Novice Chase with Champ is quite a compliment. Given that the 2020 Albert Novice Hurdle looked to be a very good race between very good horses (Monkfish et al), this potential superstar has been overlooked. If back to fitness, the RSA Novice Chase is the natural target, and Gigginstown wont be afraid to run both him and Fury Road if they both progress nicely over fences.
Easywork (Gordon Elliott) Graham
has won 2 from 4 over Hurdles, on both other occasions he was runner up, beaten by a very good Asterion Forlonge in the 2m Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival (Leopardstown) and by stablemate Envoi Allen in the Ballymore Novice Hurdle (2m5f) at the Cheltenham Festival. On both occasions he had beaten good horses (Mt Leinster, The Big Getaway & The Big Breakaway) with clear daylight back to third place. His Sire Network has produced some very good chasers, including Sprinter Sacre, and Easywork could easily progress again this year. The difficulty in assessing him as an Ante Post selection is the presence of Envoi Allen, and whether they step back or up in trip come Cheltenham to avoid the clash – that might not be needed if Easywork pleases over 2.5 miles beforehand which is quite possible (I’ve always agree with the notion to never be afraid of one horse in National Hunt). Therefore I’m happy to take the 16/1 about his chances in any race at this stage.
Ferny Hollow (Willie Mullins) Sam
He was a super impressive winner of the Champion Bumper beating the buzz horse Appreciate It with conviction. Potentially could follow the same route that Envoi Allen took and go to the Ballymore should connections wish to swerve the Supreme. Saying that whichever race they decided to go for he has a massive chance and I’d expect him to be at the top of the market and the one to beat.
Ronald Pump (Matthew Smith) Sam
He finished in front of some very good horses in last years Stayers Hurdle when finishing 2nd. This again looks the route he will take and he could well again be the horse that’s staying on from the back of the last. 20/1 (bet365) looks a very generous price and is my one to follow in the staying scene this season.
Fire Attack (Joseph O'Brien) Josh
likely to go for staying novice races with the Albert Bartlett possibly being the end target.
Presenting Percy (Gordon Elliot) Josh
interestingly has switched trainers with Gordon confirming that he will likely be going to the Gold Cup but could possibly end up going for The Grand National depending how he fairs in his first few races.
The Big Getaway (Willie Mullins) Josh
Was always a chaser in the making, staying novices chases will probably be his aim, with the RSA being the likely target.
Goshen (Gary Moore) Josh
looks a freak of a horse, I wouldn't be worried at all about him finishing last on his return in a flat prep, The Champion Hurdle being the obvious target.
Thanks for taking the time to read my 10 to follow, looking forward to having the jumps back and the start of the jumps season proper at Chepstow Friday. Hopefully there are a few winners provided above from me and the others, but most importantly hopefully all the horse come home safe and sound.
Aaron
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